We’re chatting about all things midterms with our friends at The Argument, GD Politics, and Slow Boring. Think of this stream ...

In 2022, after his senior season at Iowa State, Brock Purdy was selected with the 262nd and final pick of the NFL Draft, earning the distinction of being that year’s “Mr. Irrelevant.” I suppose the ...

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin forecasts have accounted for it since their inception. It’s why ...

Still Counting Episode 7 is ready. This episode is a little bit on the longer side. The original plan was to tell the story of the 2026 campaign through the ubiquitous ads that you’re undoubtedly ...

What if Black voters turn out like it’s a presidential race? Democrats’ path to a Senate majority could become much more robust.

Partially, that’s because Senate races have more general appeal than individual House races.1 Most people who are following ...

In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?

Our standing rule at Silver Bulletin: Always account for the possibility of systematic polling errors. What if the polls are ...

I’m not sure how much to write about COVID here at Silver Bulletin. On the one hand, the way the topic represents the intersection of the personal and the political seems almost designed to alienate ...